Fire Ravishing MillTier 2
at GGM Store Championship
decks
2
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-5-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.8%
avg ELO -2.9 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1267
· median 1267
· range 1252–1283
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
985
Q1 1170
Q3 1318
1446
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 16.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.3% | -18.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.1% | +8.7 |
| Water Overlord | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Wind Lorraine | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
