Water FractalTier 1
at GGM Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 16.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.7% | +18.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Water Neos | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Expulsion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |