← Plenty of Games Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at Plenty of Games Store Championship
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
7-3-0
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
70.5%
avg ELO +9.2 per match
expected value
56.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1317
· median 1317
· range 1250–1384
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1081
Q1 1223
Q3 1389
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 20.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.6% | +7.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.4% | +24.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +3.8 |
| Wind Exia | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
