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Water GenbuTier 2
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 44.3% | -4.3 |
| Water Fractal | 10.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.4% | -7.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.5 |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.4% | +18.6 |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.1% | +12.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.9 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |