← Fortress HVN Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Fortress HVN Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Tera Kongming 1 16.7% 2 75.0% 62.8% 55.0% 57.7% 1254 ↓ low
2 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 16.7% 3 66.7% 51.5% 53.3% 50.7% 1630 ↑ top
3 Wind Exia 1 16.7% 2 50.0% 43.9% 50.0% 46.3% 1467 ↑ top
4 Wind Razorgale 1 16.7% 3 50.0% 57.7% 50.0% 53.6% 1331
5 Fire Suzaku 1 16.7% 1 0.0% 36.5% 40.0% 36.5% 1362 ↑ top
6 Water Luxem Assassin 1 16.7% 1 0.0% 42.7% 40.0% 42.7% 1449 ↑ top