← GRAND ARCHIVE INDONESIA REGIONAL ABYSSAL HEAVEN SEASON by IKI CARDSHOP
Water FractalTier 1
at GRAND ARCHIVE INDONESIA REGIONAL ABYSSAL HEAVEN SEASON by IKI CARDSHOP
decks
5
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28
16-11-1
overall winrate
58.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.3%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
49.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1313
· median 1317
· range 1136–1499
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1032
Q1 1145
Q3 1357
1508
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 13.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.3% | -8.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.0% | -11.5 |
| Fire Exia | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 65.2% | +8.8 |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -2.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Water Neos | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.9% | +12.4 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Water Diao Chan | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.8 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Beast | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.7 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
