EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Yeti Gaming Weekly 4/24/2025. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Zander

55.4%

3.0% share · 4 matches

9.1% share · 11 matches

3rd

Fire Umbra Ranger

55.0%

3.0% share · 4 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Suzaku	3	9.1%	11	72.7%	51.2%	55.5%	50.3%	1347	—
2	Zander	1	3.0%	4	62.5%	50.1%	55.4%	50.1%	1159	↓ low
3	Fire Umbra Ranger	1	3.0%	4	75.0%	50.5%	55.0%	50.0%	1291	—
4	Fire Luxem Assassin	1	3.0%	4	75.0%	49.3%	54.0%	49.7%	1517	↑ top
5	Water Luxem Assassin	1	3.0%	4	62.5%	50.0%	52.0%	50.0%	1527	↑ top
6	Wind Seiryuu	2	6.1%	7	50.0%	50.2%	51.9%	49.9%	1287	—
7	Wind Shadowstrike	2	6.1%	5	30.0%	49.9%	51.8%	50.2%	1187	↓ low
8	Water Fractal	6	18.2%	14	50.0%	50.1%	51.0%	50.0%	1397	↑ top
9	Fire Neos	1	3.0%	4	50.0%	50.3%	50.0%	50.1%	1426	↑ top
10	Fire Seiryuu	2	6.1%	4	25.0%	49.3%	49.7%	50.1%	1169	↓ low
11	Fire Crux Lorraine	3	9.1%	8	50.0%	50.2%	48.0%	49.9%	1179	↓ low
12	Water Genbu	2	6.1%	8	62.5%	50.7%	47.1%	50.0%	1259	—
13	Wind Razorgale	2	6.1%	6	50.0%	50.1%	46.4%	49.9%	1206	↓ low
14	Fire Crux Hybrid	2	6.1%	5	40.0%	49.4%	45.7%	49.8%	1279	—
15	Fire Aggro	2	6.1%	4	0.0%	48.8%	40.0%	49.8%	1165	↓ low
16	Water Astra Cleric	1	3.0%	2	0.0%	48.6%	40.0%	49.2%	1231	↓ low
17	Water Umbra Ranger	1	3.0%	2	0.0%	49.0%	40.0%	49.4%	1548	↑ top