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Water FractalTier 1
at DX Store Champion Main Event
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 59.6% | +5.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 64.0% | +10.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.3% | +2.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 60.0% | +5.8 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.5% | +6.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.8% | +14.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.2 |
| Wind Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fractal of Snow, Backup Charger, Burst Asunder. Losers more often ran: Acquiescing Rejection, Fractal of Refreshment, Censer of Restful Peace.
Show all 56 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fractal of Snow | +0.57 | 4 | 0 | 3 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Burst Asunder | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Automated Gardener | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mana Resonance | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Fracturize | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |