← MANAPRO STORE CHAMPIONSHIP SINGAPORE
Water GenbuTier 2
at MANAPRO STORE CHAMPIONSHIP SINGAPORE
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 15.4% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.2% | -7.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 15.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 44.2% | -4.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.0% | +8.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dewdrop Hares | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Young Beastbonder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |