← Black Label TCG Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Black Label TCG Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Exia Jin 1 5.3% 5 100.0% 75.9% 61.2% 61.3% 1190 ↓ low
2 Fire Slimes 1 5.3% 6 83.3% 68.8% 59.0% 58.6% 1492 ↑ top
3 Fire Aggro 2 10.5% 12 66.7% 65.5% 55.8% 56.8% 1384 ↑ top
4 Water Ravishing Mill 1 5.3% 5 60.0% 46.6% 55.6% 50.7% 1346
5 Wind Seiryuu 2 10.5% 10 60.0% 56.5% 54.2% 54.1% 1178 ↓ low
6 Fire Neos 1 5.3% 2 50.0% 43.7% 53.3% 50.0% 1584 ↑ top
7 Water Genbu 4 21.1% 17 41.2% 35.4% 49.4% 45.7% 1327
8 Wind Shadowstrike 3 15.8% 12 33.3% 39.7% 47.5% 47.7% 1281
9 Fire Luxem Assassin 2 10.5% 7 28.6% 43.6% 47.1% 49.0% 1291
10 Water Fractal 3 15.8% 8 12.5% 37.5% 40.9% 45.8% 1330