EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HVN Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
2nd
Wind Umbra Diana
56.7%
↑ top
1st
Wind Astra Arisanna
64.0%
↑ top
3rd
Wind Luxem Zander
55.8%
↑ top
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Astra Arisanna | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 100.0% | 74.3% | 64.0% | 63.5% | 1493 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.7% | 55.2% | 1335 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 62.5% | 50.6% | 55.8% | 52.5% | 1382 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 12.5% | 6 | 58.3% | 56.3% | 54.8% | 54.5% | 1312 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 3 | 18.8% | 8 | 50.0% | 49.2% | 50.4% | 50.2% | 1243 | — |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 2 | 12.5% | 8 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 50.3% | 50.5% | 1264 | — |
| 7 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.1% | 50.0% | 50.1% | 1191 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.1% | 48.3% | 48.0% | 1313 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Slimes | 2 | 12.5% | 8 | 31.2% | 39.3% | 43.1% | 43.9% | 1164 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Silvie | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 12.5% | 38.1% | 42.5% | 45.0% | 1074 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 12.5% | 31.4% | 40.6% | 40.6% | 1193 | ↓ low |