EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at CBD Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 2 | 25.0% | 11 | 68.2% | 62.0% | 59.2% | 58.2% | 1329 | — |
| 2 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 37.5% | 9 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | 51.3% | 1359 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 25.0% | 7 | 35.7% | 40.8% | 43.3% | 43.4% | 1410 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 16.7% | 38.7% | 42.9% | 44.5% | 1435 | ↑ top |