← Yeti Webcam Weekly 4/11/2024
Fire EruptingTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 4/11/2024
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 15.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.9% | -0.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.8 |
| Water Allies | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.7 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.9 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 65 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 65 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ordinary Bear | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Elysian Astrolabe | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Manic Zealot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embertail Squirrel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Melodious Flute | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Allen, Beast Beckoner | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Steady Verse | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Silvie, With the Pack | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fireworks Display | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Bedivere, Woodland Overseer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Slime | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Academy Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flamebreak Chorus | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Capricious Lynx | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cemetery Sentry | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rai, Spellcrafter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cosmic Astroscope | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Warrior's Longsword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Discordia, Harp of Malice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |