EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Abyssal Heaven Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 66.7% | 58.4% | 56.4% | 55.4% | 1309 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 5.4% | 11 | 72.7% | 64.0% | 54.3% | 54.1% | 1254 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 2.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.3% | 54.3% | 52.6% | 1191 | — |
| 4 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 2.7% | 7 | 57.1% | 51.5% | 54.3% | 52.0% | 1382 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 2 | 5.4% | 11 | 63.6% | 65.2% | 53.3% | 54.8% | 1213 | — |
| 6 | Water Genbu | 2 | 5.4% | 11 | 63.6% | 52.8% | 52.4% | 48.6% | 1324 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Allies | 6 | 16.2% | 34 | 60.3% | 63.5% | 51.9% | 53.2% | 1169 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 8.1% | 17 | 58.8% | 51.0% | 51.8% | 49.8% | 1235 | — |
| 9 | Fire Exia | 3 | 8.1% | 16 | 56.2% | 53.8% | 51.3% | 50.3% | 1240 | — |
| 10 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 2.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 42.3% | 50.0% | 49.3% | 1166 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 2.7% | 7 | 64.3% | 58.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | 1341 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 2.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 43.6% | 48.9% | 48.3% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 5.4% | 10 | 60.0% | 59.1% | 48.7% | 49.7% | 1143 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Neos | 1 | 2.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.0% | 48.0% | 48.9% | 1207 | — |
| 15 | Slimes | 3 | 8.1% | 16 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 47.1% | 48.0% | 1116 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 5.4% | 11 | 50.0% | 52.7% | 46.8% | 47.7% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 5.4% | 9 | 38.9% | 37.9% | 46.5% | 44.5% | 1224 | — |
| 18 | Wind Beast | 1 | 2.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.0% | 45.3% | 47.3% | 1093 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 2.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.0% | 45.3% | 47.3% | 1093 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 2.7% | 7 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 41.4% | 41.7% | 1143 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Wind Neos | 1 | 2.7% | 2 | 0.0% | 34.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | 1169 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 2.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 29.9% | 40.0% | 40.7% | 1140 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Wind Diana | 1 | 2.7% | 5 | 20.0% | 34.1% | 38.2% | 38.7% | 1132 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 2.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 21.9% | 35.0% | 30.1% | 1335 | ↑ top |