Water Tera MageTier 2
at CakeTCG Utrecht Regional
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.5%
avg ELO -3.7 per match
expected value
44.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1264
· median 1264
· range 1264–1264
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1132
Q1 1244
Q3 1366
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 23.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 17.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.7 |
| Water Genbu | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
