Water FractalTier 2
at 東門艾客米101聯賽
decks
3
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
6-7-2
overall winrate
46.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.0%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
49.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1221
· median 1231
· range 1100–1331
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1100
Q1 1253
Q3 1421
1542
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 16.7% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 48.3% | -1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
