Water GenbuTier 1
at 東門艾客米101聯賽
decks
3
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
6-7-3
overall winrate
46.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.2%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
51.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1387
· median 1440
· range 1240–1481
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1100
Q1 1253
Q3 1421
1542
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Water Fractal | 12.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 47.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.8% | +1.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 45.9% | -3.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
