Water FractalTier 1
at 2025 World Championships
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 21.9% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 71.4% | +10.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 15.6% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 71.7% | +10.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 8 | 0-8-0 | 0.0% | 16.7% | 13.1% | -17.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 35.8% | -7.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 70.5% | +13.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 64.4% | +10.8 |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.8% | +25.2 |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.4 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |