Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at 2025 World Championships
decks
4
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
35
19-15-1
overall winrate
55.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.0%
avg ELO +5.0 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1514
· median 1526
· range 1463–1543
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1200
Q1 1464
Q3 1634
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 21.9% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 74.8% | +12.5 |
| Water Fractal | 15.6% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 64.2% | +7.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 15.6% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 46.3% | -2.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 53.2% | +1.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.2% | -20.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 74.7% | +14.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
