EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at June Month-ender with PRs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 90.0% | 53.7% | 62.4% | 51.8% | 1356 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 90.0% | 51.4% | 58.3% | 50.7% | 1421 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 1 | 5.6% | 6 | 66.7% | 54.4% | 58.3% | 52.4% | 1241 | — |
| 4 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.6% | 6 | 75.0% | 52.6% | 57.4% | 51.3% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 11.1% | 8 | 56.2% | 49.2% | 56.5% | 50.3% | 1345 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.1% | 55.6% | 50.7% | 1324 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 53.7% | 55.0% | 51.5% | 1229 | — |
| 8 | Fire Aggro | 4 | 22.2% | 17 | 47.1% | 50.4% | 48.2% | 50.0% | 1206 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 47.8% | 47.5% | 48.5% | 1400 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Neos | 1 | 5.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 50.3% | 44.2% | 49.1% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 30.0% | 47.9% | 43.8% | 48.8% | 1150 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 30.0% | 47.9% | 43.8% | 48.8% | 1150 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Slimes | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 47.8% | 43.3% | 49.0% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Fractal | 1 | 5.6% | 6 | 0.0% | 44.7% | 40.0% | 48.2% | 1146 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Exia | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 47.8% | 39.2% | 48.4% | 1137 | ↓ low |