Water FractalTier 1
at Yeti Gaming HVN Weekly 7/10
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.9% | +1.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |