← The 1st Non-Meta deck Tournament (Hong Kong)
Fire ByakkoTier 2
at The 1st Non-Meta deck Tournament (Hong Kong)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Byakko | 15.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 15.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Tamer | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.0% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.7 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 47.0% | -2.8 |
| Water Zander | 5.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Cleric | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Wind Tera Diao Chan | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 51 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 51 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assassin's Mantle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Emergent Dagger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Final Stroke | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Accursed Strength | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expunge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Felicitous Flock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revenant’s Scourge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slip Away | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowdancer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Decompose | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demon's Aim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lumen Borealis | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Grim Stalker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creeping Torment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Purification | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Debilitating Grasp | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peacock of Prosperity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fated Keepsake | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mistbound Cutthroat | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavaplume Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incandescent Reliquary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Raze the Land | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Malignant Athame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wingpeak Patriarch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Heaven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Haunting Demise | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |