← The 1st Non-Meta deck Tournament (Hong Kong)
Water Crux MerlinTier 2
at The 1st Non-Meta deck Tournament (Hong Kong)
decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-2-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.1%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1411
· median 1411
· range 1411–1411
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1160
Q1 1223
Q3 1395
1535
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Byakko | 15.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.6% | -1.4 |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 15.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Fire Byakko | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Tamer | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Cleric | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Diao Chan | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
