← Road To Regionals: DTR @Favonia HQ (Revelfest)
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Road To Regionals: DTR @Favonia HQ (Revelfest).
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.5% | 54.3% | 51.3% | 1420 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 70.0% | 49.5% | 54.0% | 49.8% | 1460 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 14.3% | 10 | 60.0% | 51.8% | 53.5% | 50.9% | 1133 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 1 | 7.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 52.0% | 53.3% | 50.7% | 1173 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 47.6% | 51.7% | 49.1% | 1448 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Slimes | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.3% | 50.0% | 50.2% | 1223 | — |
| 7 | Water Umbra Diana | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.4% | 50.0% | 50.5% | 1268 | — |
| 8 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.4% | 48.0% | 49.5% | 1342 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Firebloom Burn | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.4% | 48.0% | 50.1% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 48.3% | 46.0% | 49.7% | 1063 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Allies | 3 | 21.4% | 10 | 35.0% | 47.6% | 45.1% | 48.9% | 1313 | — |