← HVN Revelfest Chaos Tournament!
Water NeosTier 2
at HVN Revelfest Chaos Tournament!
decks
2
(6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-5-1
overall winrate
31.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.2%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1219
· median 1219
· range 1207–1231
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1111
Q1 1162
Q3 1305
1493
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.5 |
| Slimes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Wind Overlord | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
