← HVN Revelfest Chaos Tournament!

Wind AlliesTier 2

at HVN Revelfest Chaos Tournament!

decks
3 (9.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6 2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.3% avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
46.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1237 · median 1208 · range 1134–1369 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1111 Q1 1162 Q3 1305 1493
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Razorgale 9.7% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 9.7% 0
Fire Suzaku 6.5% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 6.5% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 46.7% -3.1
Water Neos 6.5% 0
Fire Aggro 3.2% 0
Fire Arcane 3.2% 0
Fire Crux Mage 3.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.3% +3.6
Fire Exia 3.2% 0
Fire Slimes 3.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 48.5% -2.4
Fire Tera Mage 3.2% 0
Slimes 3.2% 0
Water Crux Mage 3.2% 0
Water Fractal 3.2% 0
Water Tera Mage 3.2% 0
Water Umbra Ranger 3.2% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 3.2% 0
Wind Exia 3.2% 0
Wind Lorraine 3.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.7% +2.7
Wind Overlord 3.2% 0
Wind Slice & Dice 3.2% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% +0.0
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Shimmercloak Assassin +1.00 1 0 0
Unbroken Mustang +1.00 1 0 0
Banner Knight -1.00 0 1 0
Staggering Strike +1.00 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Water Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Fire Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Lurking Assailant +1.00 1 0 0
Veiling Breeze +1.00 1 0 0
Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace +1.00 1 0 0
Adept Swordmaster -1.00 0 1 0
Yuan Shao, Crown General +1.00 1 0 0
Exorcise Curses +1.00 1 0 0
Rallied Advance +1.00 1 0 0
Windrider Vanguard -1.00 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +1.00 1 0 0
Deflecting Edge +1.00 1 0 0
Mandate of Honor +1.00 1 0 0
Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar -1.00 0 1 0
Clarent, Reimagined -1.00 0 1 0
Hurricane Sweep -1.00 0 1 0
Stalwart Shieldmate -1.00 0 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Eternal Magistrate +1.00 1 0 0
Lorraine, Blademaster -1.00 0 1 0
Fairy Whispers -1.00 0 1 0
Swift Recruit -1.00 0 1 0
Phalanx Captain -1.00 0 1 0
Brackish Lutist +1.00 1 0 0
Clarent, Sword of Peace -1.00 0 1 0
Brisk Windtrotter +1.00 1 0 0
Oath of the Sakura -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror -1.00 0 1 0
Zephyr -1.00 0 1 0
Dream Fairy +1.00 1 0 0
Censer of Restful Peace +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/29938/archetypes/Wind Allies