← Revelfest Special Event Tuesday
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Revelfest Special Event Tuesday.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Exia | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 75.0% | 51.0% | 56.7% | 50.5% | 1209 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 75.0% | 50.7% | 56.7% | 50.4% | 1508 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 3 | 17.6% | 7 | 64.3% | 51.2% | 54.5% | 50.6% | 1395 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 75.0% | 50.1% | 53.3% | 49.9% | 1463 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Genbu | 1 | 5.9% | 3 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 52.5% | 50.3% | 1318 | — |
| 6 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 5.9% | 2 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 50.0% | 50.1% | 1196 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 17.6% | 7 | 50.0% | 49.3% | 49.3% | 49.5% | 1287 | — |
| 8 | Wind Allies | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.7% | 46.7% | 49.7% | 1362 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 11.8% | 5 | 30.0% | 49.8% | 43.0% | 50.0% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.9% | 2 | 0.0% | 48.8% | 40.0% | 49.3% | 1152 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Slice & Dice | 1 | 5.9% | 2 | 0.0% | 49.4% | 40.0% | 49.4% | 1104 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 5.9% | 2 | 0.0% | 48.7% | 40.0% | 49.2% | 1276 | — |