← Store Championship at Final Cut TCG
Fire OblationTier 1
at Store Championship at Final Cut TCG
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 47.6% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 19.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 66.1% | +10.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.4% | +5.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 14.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -1.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +3.3 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Resolute Stand, Reduce to Ash, Extorting Blackjack. Losers more often ran: Stalwart Shieldmate, Cremation Ritual, Tariff Ring.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surreptitious Scheme | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Profane Bindings | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smashing Force | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |