← Store Championship at Final Cut TCG
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Store Championship at Final Cut TCG
decks
2
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-6-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.5%
avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
45.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1274
· median 1274
· range 1198–1351
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1233
Q3 1416
1642
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 47.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 19.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 19.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.5% | -10.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.1% | +24.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
