← Store Championship at Final Cut TCG
Fire RileTier 1
at Store Championship at Final Cut TCG
decks
10
(47.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
40
26-14-0
overall winrate
65.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.6%
avg ELO +3.0 per match
expected value
58.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1382
· median 1380
· range 1198–1642
(10 pilots with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1233
Q3 1416
1642
30% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 19.0% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 19.0% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 55.4% | +2.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +3.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 14.3% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 54.8% | +2.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -0.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.8% | +14.2 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.3% | +16.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 12 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Varuckan Acolyte, Regal Inquisition, Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored. Losers more often ran: Spirit of Fire, Grand Crusader's Ring, Smoke Bombs.
Varuckan Acolyte
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Regal Inquisition
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 3.
Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored
Winning decks ran 0.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 2.
Dungeon Guide
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.6.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Spirit of Serene Fire
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Spirit of Fire
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Smoke Bombs
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Vengeful Paramour
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Show all 123 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 103 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.25 | 6 | 3 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +0.25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.17 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.17 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.17 | 5 | 3 | 4 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.17 | 3 | 5 | 2 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.17 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.17 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.17 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.17 | 5 | 3 | 4 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | +0.17 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.17 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.17 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.17 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.17 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| Profane Bindings | +0.17 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.17 | 6 | 4 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.17 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.08 | 6 | 5 | 1 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Lingering Banshee | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.08 | 5 | 4 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.08 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smashing Force | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.08 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 5 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Blighted Jewel | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.08 | 5 | 4 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.08 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.08 | 5 | 6 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.08 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 6 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.08 | 5 | 4 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fleeting Guard | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.08 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.08 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.08 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Astral Seal | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Astra | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Astral Zenith | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cosmic Bolt | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Astra Sight | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Astarte, Celestial Dawn | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Harvest Herbs | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wisdom's Reprise | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Meteor Strike | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cosmic Astroscope | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regenerate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Prima Materia | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 5 | |
| Nascent Barrier | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cometfall | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Horticounter | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Obsequious Blow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |