EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at KADO Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Exia | 2 | 12.5% | 14 | 71.4% | 59.8% | 60.8% | 57.3% | 1268 | — |
| 2 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 6.2% | 6 | 66.7% | 64.4% | 55.7% | 58.5% | 1443 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Rile | 9 | 56.2% | 32 | 57.8% | 54.0% | 52.5% | 51.8% | 1317 | — |
| 4 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 6.2% | 9 | 50.0% | 53.9% | 50.4% | 52.6% | 1455 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 18.8% | 11 | 54.5% | 46.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | 1342 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 6.2% | 3 | 33.3% | 42.5% | 50.0% | 49.6% | 1196 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 6.2% | 7 | 57.1% | 59.0% | 45.7% | 49.5% | 1364 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 6.2% | 7 | 35.7% | 39.8% | 44.7% | 44.9% | 1317 | — |
| 9 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 6.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 43.7% | 44.7% | 44.6% | 1251 | — |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 49.0% | 42.5% | 44.7% | 1273 | — |
| 11 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 38.0% | 42.1% | 44.5% | 1261 | — |
| 12 | Water Allies | 1 | 6.2% | 6 | 33.3% | 45.2% | 38.7% | 42.5% | 1253 | — |
| 13 | Wind Ciel | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 0.0% | 32.8% | 35.7% | 42.1% | 1136 | ↓ low |