← GA Middle East Weekly DTR #4

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA Middle East Weekly DTR #4. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Luxem Assassin 2 13.3% 6 91.7% 50.6% 59.2% 50.1% 1423 ↑ top
2 Fire Rile 6 40.0% 16 62.5% 50.2% 53.7% 50.1% 1360 ↑ top
3 Fire Oblation 1 6.7% 3 50.0% 49.5% 52.5% 50.0% 1348
4 Fire Firebloom Burn 2 13.3% 10 60.0% 51.6% 51.5% 50.7% 1272 ↓ low
5 Slimes 1 6.7% 4 50.0% 50.8% 50.0% 50.4% 1302
6 Fire Suited 1 6.7% 5 60.0% 51.2% 50.0% 50.4% 1228 ↓ low
7 Fire Umbra Ciel 1 6.7% 5 50.0% 50.5% 49.0% 50.2% 1276 ↓ low
8 Fire Crux Mage 1 6.7% 3 33.3% 48.8% 46.7% 49.3% 1379 ↑ top
9 Water Aetherwing 1 6.7% 5 30.0% 49.0% 43.3% 49.4% 1241 ↓ low
10 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 6.7% 3 33.3% 49.2% 42.2% 49.2% 1425 ↑ top
11 Water Fractal 1 6.7% 2 0.0% 48.7% 40.0% 49.3% 1222 ↓ low
12 Fire Arcane 2 13.3% 6 0.0% 47.9% 33.8% 48.8% 1387 ↑ top