← GA Middle East Weekly DTR #4
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA Middle East Weekly DTR #4.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 13.3% | 6 | 91.7% | 50.6% | 59.2% | 50.1% | 1423 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Rile | 6 | 40.0% | 16 | 62.5% | 50.2% | 53.7% | 50.1% | 1360 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 50.0% | 49.5% | 52.5% | 50.0% | 1348 | — |
| 4 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 13.3% | 10 | 60.0% | 51.6% | 51.5% | 50.7% | 1272 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Slimes | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.8% | 50.0% | 50.4% | 1302 | — |
| 6 | Fire Suited | 1 | 6.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.2% | 50.0% | 50.4% | 1228 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 6.7% | 5 | 50.0% | 50.5% | 49.0% | 50.2% | 1276 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.8% | 46.7% | 49.3% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 6.7% | 5 | 30.0% | 49.0% | 43.3% | 49.4% | 1241 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.2% | 42.2% | 49.2% | 1425 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Water Fractal | 1 | 6.7% | 2 | 0.0% | 48.7% | 40.0% | 49.3% | 1222 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 13.3% | 6 | 0.0% | 47.9% | 33.8% | 48.8% | 1387 | ↑ top |