← Regionals Cardpoint Slovenia
Fire RileTier 1
at Regionals Cardpoint Slovenia
decks
9
(42.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
45
21-18-6
overall winrate
53.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.1%
avg ELO +0.0 per match
expected value
52.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1315
· median 1277
· range 1153–1584
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
1072
Q1 1188
Q3 1325
1584
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
22% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 19.0% | 10 | 5-2-3 | 65.0% | 60.7% | 57.5% | +3.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.8% | +6.5 |
| Fire Exia | 4.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -2.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.0% | -6.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +3.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.1% | -6.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.9% | -8.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.2% | +14.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Slimes | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.4% | +14.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.8% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 27.9% | -16.5 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 46.3% | -2.4 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Fluffy Shopkeep, Resolute Stand. Losers more often ran: Staggering Strike, Backup Charger, Varuckan Acolyte.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Winning decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Backup Charger
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Varuckan Acolyte
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Heavy Swing
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Grande Aiguille
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Flamme Sorcel
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 133 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 113 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.50 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 3 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.25 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.25 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.25 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rapid Combustion | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Zephyr's Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |