← Yeti Webcam Weekly 8/21/2025
Water GenbuTier 2
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 8/21/2025
decks
3
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
6-8-2
overall winrate
43.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
47.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1366
· median 1316
· range 1223–1560
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1213
Q3 1400
1563
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 30.6% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 49.3% | -0.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 16.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Fire Suited | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
