← Fyendal Hobby Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Fyendal Hobby Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 19.4% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 59.2% | +5.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.8% | +8.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.2% | -13.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.8% | +11.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.6% | +5.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Fractal | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rising Tides | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |