← Fyendal Hobby Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Fyendal Hobby Store Championship
decks
1
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1304
· median 1304
· range 1304–1304
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
949
Q1 1211
Q3 1413
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 19.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
