← Pikku Play Store championship
Fire AggroTier 2
at Pikku Play Store championship
decks
2
(6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.5%
avg ELO -6.5 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1361
· median 1361
· range 1234–1488
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1236
Q3 1442
1633
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.2 |
| Water Fractal | 9.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.3% | -25.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 32.4% | -28.2 |
