← Pikku Play Store championship
Water FractalTier 2
at Pikku Play Store championship
decks
3
(9.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
1-7-0
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.4%
avg ELO -6.1 per match
expected value
39.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1192
· median 1182
· range 1075–1320
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1236
Q3 1442
1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.1% | -8.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.0 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
