EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at LLE DTR Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 5.0% | 7 | 85.7% | 76.2% | 59.7% | 62.4% | 1273 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 4 | 20.0% | 17 | 64.7% | 47.8% | 59.1% | 52.0% | 1396 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 5.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 60.9% | 55.0% | 56.0% | 1455 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 2 | 10.0% | 8 | 50.0% | 45.5% | 50.0% | 48.4% | 1307 | — |
| 5 | Wind Diana | 1 | 5.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 55.2% | 50.0% | 53.8% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 5.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 45.2% | 48.6% | 47.4% | 1208 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 5.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 54.5% | 46.7% | 49.3% | 1364 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Suzaku | 3 | 15.0% | 12 | 45.8% | 52.0% | 46.1% | 49.5% | 1249 | — |
| 9 | Fire Suited | 1 | 5.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 29.6% | 43.7% | 40.7% | 1406 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Neos | 1 | 5.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.2% | 43.3% | 45.0% | 1240 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 10.0% | 8 | 37.5% | 49.6% | 42.4% | 47.0% | 1169 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 1 | 5.0% | 3 | 16.7% | 39.9% | 41.7% | 43.8% | 1174 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 5.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 39.4% | 40.0% | 45.0% | 1183 | ↓ low |