← Grand Archive TCG Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at Grand Archive TCG Store Championship
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
6-2-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
72.0%
avg ELO +10.6 per match
expected value
62.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
66.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1288
· median 1288
· range 1250–1327
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1172
Q3 1389
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 25.0% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 72.8% | +12.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.2 |
| Fire Diana | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
