Fire RileTier 1
at 9/6 中貓 DTR Store Champion
decks
9
(30.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
45
22-22-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.2%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
49.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1380
· median 1293
· range 1166–1694
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1223
Q3 1406
1694
44% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
11% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 30.0% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.3% | -3.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.0% | -5.7 |
| Fire Exia | 6.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.0% | -15.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.7% | +15.1 |
| Fire Genbu | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -0.9 |
| Fire Suited | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.5% | +13.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.8% | -0.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.8% | +12.3 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.1% | -12.4 |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Wind Allies | 3.3% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 27.0% | -14.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Incapacitate, Resolute Stand, Insignia of the Corhazi. Losers more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Cremation Ritual, Safeguard Amulet.
Incapacitate
Winning decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Insignia of the Corhazi
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Uncover the Plot
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Luxera's Map
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Zander, Deft Executor
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Cremation Ritual
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Quicksilver Grail
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 127 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 107 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incapacitate | +0.57 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.14 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.14 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annihilation | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Candlelight Hourglass | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Sapphire Fatestone | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Azurite Fatestone | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incandescent Reliquary | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireball | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scorched Conquest | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ethereal Slime | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Baby Silver Slime | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Storm Slime | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Slime King | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Limitless Slime | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lustrous Slime | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Silvie, With the Pack | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tera Sight | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Slime Eruption | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Slime Sovereign | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Red Slime | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stonescale Band | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Verdant Scepter | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Blessing | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Twilight Slime | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Horn of Beastcalling | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Berserker Plate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |