Water FractalTier 2
at 9/6 中貓 DTR Store Champion
decks
1
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
10-0-0
overall winrate
100.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
69.8%
avg ELO +8.9 per match
expected value
69.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
61.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1568
· median 1568
· range 1568–1568
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1223
Q3 1406
1694
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 30.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.9% | +12.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 30.0% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 61.4% | +6.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Fire Exia | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
