Water GenbuTier 2
at 9/6 中貓 DTR Store Champion
decks
1
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.5%
avg ELO -6.7 per match
expected value
43.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1150
· median 1150
· range 1150–1150
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1223
Q3 1406
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 30.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 30.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +3.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Fire Exia | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Genbu decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
