EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Card Nation Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Seiryuu

51.7%

20.0% share · 14 matches

1st

Fire Crux Lorraine

56.3%

20.0% share · 20 matches

3rd

Wind Wakeup Combo

51.4%

3.3% share · 3 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Crux Lorraine	6	20.0%	20	65.0%	52.1%	56.3%	50.8%	1405	—
2	Wind Seiryuu	6	20.0%	14	57.1%	56.3%	51.7%	52.8%	1398	—
3	Wind Wakeup Combo	1	3.3%	3	66.7%	54.3%	51.4%	49.9%	1380	—
4	Fire Crux Mage	3	10.0%	13	57.7%	61.3%	50.3%	53.9%	1320	↓ low
5	Wind Crux Lorraine	1	3.3%	4	50.0%	49.8%	50.0%	48.7%	1384	—
6	Wind Luxem Zander	1	3.3%	4	37.5%	46.1%	49.2%	50.3%	1388	—
7	Water Aetherwing	1	3.3%	3	33.3%	51.6%	47.7%	51.1%	1304	↓ low
8	Fire Suzaku	5	16.7%	14	42.9%	48.6%	45.4%	47.2%	1334	↓ low
9	Water Fractal	2	6.7%	6	50.0%	51.5%	44.4%	48.7%	1360	—
10	Wind Razorgale	1	3.3%	3	33.3%	45.8%	42.0%	43.2%	1423	↑ top
11	Horse and Taxes	1	3.3%	2	0.0%	30.2%	40.0%	38.7%	1460	↑ top
12	Water Tera Mage	1	3.3%	2	0.0%	38.7%	40.0%	44.0%	1267	↓ low
13	Wind Shadowstrike	1	3.3%	2	0.0%	27.1%	40.0%	34.8%	1426	↑ top