← Gamers Guild Tempe - Grand Archive Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 1
at Gamers Guild Tempe - Grand Archive Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.6%
avg ELO -2.5 per match
expected value
51.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1368
· median 1368
· range 1368–1368
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1147
Q3 1262
1517
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 23.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Fire Rile | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 7.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
