← Gamers Guild Tempe - Grand Archive Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Water Crux MageTier 1
at Gamers Guild Tempe - Grand Archive Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
3-1-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.3%
avg ELO +9.2 per match
expected value
60.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
60.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1128
· median 1128
· range 1128–1128
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1147
Q3 1262
1517
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 23.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.1% | +16.5 |
| Fire Rile | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
