← Grand Archive TCG Store Championship | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Grand Archive TCG Store Championship | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-4-1
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.0%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
49.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1385
· median 1385
· range 1185–1584
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1052
Q1 1196
Q3 1467
1584
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.8% | -7.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.9% | -7.8 |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
