← Grand Archive TCG Store Championship | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
Water AlliesTier 1
at Grand Archive TCG Store Championship | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-3-1
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.4%
avg ELO -3.2 per match
expected value
53.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1414
· median 1414
· range 1337–1490
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1052
Q1 1196
Q3 1467
1584
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.4% | -8.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
