← Grand Archive TCG Store Championship | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Grand Archive TCG Store Championship | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
5-0-1
overall winrate
91.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.6%
avg ELO +7.8 per match
expected value
59.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1477
· median 1477
· range 1477–1477
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1052
Q1 1196
Q3 1467
1584
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 14.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.1% | +7.8 |
| Water Allies | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
