← Distorted Reflection Store Championship
Fire RileTier 2
at Distorted Reflection Store Championship
decks
6
(42.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
6-10-2
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.5%
avg ELO -2.2 per match
expected value
46.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1271
· median 1253
· range 994–1535
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1163
Q3 1391
1535
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.1% | -7.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Exia | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Wind Diana | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Exia | 7.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.5% | +2.6 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Evercurrent Raider, Tariff Ring. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Cremation Ritual, Hasty Messenger.
Evercurrent Raider
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Tariff Ring
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Cremation Ritual
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Hasty Messenger
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Lorraine, Blademaster
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Clarent, Sword of Peace
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Unyielding Wraithguard
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 98 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 86 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regal Inquisition | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fleeting Guard | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incinerated Templar | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Death Essence Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purifying Thurible | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |